One man more interested than most in what President Barack Obama will have to say in his address to the nation Wednesday night is al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri .

In his hideout somewhere in Pakistan or Afghanistan , he will likely be hoping that the President sets out a plan to exterminate the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria -LRB- ISIS -RRB- , a group that has eclipsed al Qaeda and made al-Zawahiri seem virtually irrelevant .

Al-Zawahiri and the core of al Qaeda are locked in battle with ISIS for the leadership of the global jihadist movement -- offering very different visions and strategies . ISIS was expelled from al Qaeda in February after rejecting al-Zawahiri 's demand that it restrict its activities to Iraq .

ISIS has captured the imagination of a new generation of jihadists -- from Arab and European states alike -- with its ruthless pursuit of a Caliphate , dramatic territorial gains and relentless propaganda machine .

Its chilling brutality toward non-Muslims and Muslims who do n't share its rigid interpretation of Islam echo the behavior of its predecessor , al Qaeda in Iraq , whose vicious attacks on Shia Muslims and moderate Sunnis drew the ire of the late al Qaeda leader , Osama bin Laden .

In short , ISIS ' `` traipse through Iraq represents a serious organizational , strategic , and ideological blow to al Qaeda , '' analyst Barak Mendelsohn wrote in Foreign Affairs in June .

So far , the leaders of al Qaeda affiliates have remained loyal -LRB- if not enthusiastically -RRB- to al-Zawahiri . After the death of its leader Ahmad Abdi Godane last week , Al-Shabaab quickly reiterated its allegiance to the al Qaeda leader , and Nasir al Wuhayshi , al Qaeda 's No. 2 , remains at the helm of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula -LRB- AQAP -RRB- .

Prominent jihadi preachers like Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi and Abu Qatada have blasted ISIS for deviancy .

Appealing to a new generation of jihadists

But the younger generation of jihadists appears to be more impressed by action than sermons . Al Qaeda foot-soldiers -- from Yemen , Libya , Saudi Arabia and elsewhere -- are flocking to ISIS ' standard . To them , its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is confronting the apostates and building the Caliphate , while al-Zawahiri talks .

It 's impossible to know the scale of this exodus . But last week , a group calling itself The Supporters of the Islamic State in Yemen released a video pledging allegiance to al-Baghdadi , calling him the `` Caliph of the Muslims ... the mujahid in the first row of attack against America . ''

Even AQAP -- the most effective of the group 's affiliates -- has expressed solidarity with ISIS fighters , condemning what it calls the `` declaration of war '' by the United States on Muslims in Iraq , and calling on `` all Islamic groups to support their brothers by afflicting America . ''

By contrast , it 's been a long time since al Qaeda central has carried out any attack of note . Four years ago , a strategy document set out ideas for attacking targets such as cruise ships , dams and bridges as well as aircraft . But very little beyond `` lone wolf '' attacks by distant sympathizers of al Qaeda has happened since .

Over the last three years , the most significant terror attacks against western interests have been against the U.S. Consulate compound in Benghazi , Libya , where there may have been some involvement by members of al Qaeda affiliates ; the gas plant in southern Algeria in January 2013 , carried out by a maverick group that pledged allegiance to al Qaeda but does not appear to have been acting on its instructions ; and the Westgate Mall in Nairobi , Kenya -- the work of Al-Shabaab , apparently planned without reference to the al Qaeda leadership , even if it was exactly the sort of operation al-Zawahiri had urged .

Attacks against U.S. military , diplomatic and government targets in Afghanistan have largely been the work of the Taliban and Haqqani Network , though al Qaeda fighters are enmeshed with these groups .

Some al Qaeda affiliates have been forced on the defensive over the last couple of years . The French intervention in Mali pushed back groups linked to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb -LRB- AQIM -RRB- , which had taken over half the country . AQAP seized and then lost several towns in southern Yemen in early 2012 , and resorted to suicide bombings and fighting Yemeni government forces from remote hideouts .

Al-Shabaab lost its leader Godane in a U.S. missile strike last week and has lost large areas of Somalia it once controlled to ground offensives by Kenyan , Ethiopian and African Union forces . It has also suffered vicious infighting . And in Pakistan , the army has gone on the offensive against the Pakistani Taliban -- an al Qaeda affiliate also riven by division -- in the North Waziristan tribal area .

Al Qaeda strongholds still exist

There are still plenty of places where al Qaeda supporters are active and their operations growing : eastern Libya , Syria and the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt , where they have found breathing space amid a collapse of state authority . But amid these fast-moving events , al-Zawahiri has seemed more the cheerleader than the leader , reacting to events rather than directing them .

Last week , in an effort to reclaim relevancy , he announced the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent , led by Asim Umar , which will include at least one faction of the Pakistan Taliban . According to a translation by the SITE Institute , the new offshoot 's spokesman , Usama Mahmoud , said its basic goals included jihad against America , supporting the Taliban and establishing a Caliphate -LRB- implicitly rejecting the Caliphate claimed by al-Baghdadi -RRB- .

The announcement steps up the philosophical battle between al Qaeda and ISIS about how the dream of the Caliphate , to which Muslims the world over would owe allegiance , is achieved . Mahmoud spoke of `` a Caliphate where the emirs are proud in their closeness to the honest scholars ... a Caliphate in whose shadow even the disbelieving people of dhimma -LRB- non-Muslim citizens of an Islamic state -RRB- have a life of safety and security . ''

The last condition was clearly aimed at ISIS and its merciless campaign against non-Muslims and non-Sunni Muslims in both Iraq and Syria . Not to be outdone , ISIS ' propaganda machine recently posted photographs showing residents of the Iraqi city of Nineveh enjoying `` prosperity ... under the shade of the Caliphate . ''

Al Qaeda 's hope for the future

Al-Zawahiri may be looking to the withdrawal of most U.S. combat forces from Afghanistan as his best chance of reviving al Qaeda 's fortunes . Last week 's announcement reiterated al Qaeda 's allegiance to Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar as the leader of the Islamic Emirate . Several analysts have also noted a stream of statements from al Qaeda that hint at the coming of a `` counter-Caliphate . ''

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Thomas Jocelyn pointed out in Foreign Policy that despite the U.S. surge in Afghanistan , `` The remote provinces of Kunar and Nuristan are home to significant cadres of al Qaeda fighters , and al Qaeda continues to operate side by side with its allies in other parts of the country . ''

There is also the prospect -- or as some would say , likelihood -- that ISIS will over-reach much as did its predecessor , al Qaeda in Iraq -- alienating the Sunni tribes , taking territory it can not defend and mobilizing more enemies than it can resist . If the coalition now building against it can split ISIS ' Syrian and Iraqi possessions and prize cities like Mosul from its grasp , the momentum crucial to its success and appeal will be lost .

The Obama administration seems poised to borrow a page out of its strategy against al Qaeda to deal with ISIS . Last week , Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes noted : `` We 've been able to significantly degrade al Qaeda core in Afghanistan and Pakistan , decimate its leadership ranks , reducing the threat that they pose . ''

Now a repetition in Iraq of the U.S. strategy that reduced al-Zawahiri to a spectator may be his best chance of overcoming the challenge posed by ISIS . The risk is that Washington and its allies will neglect imminent challenges in Afghanistan while refocusing on the militant challenge in Iraq . We 've seen that movie too .

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ISIS was expelled from al Qaeda in February

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Analyst : ISIS ' traipse through Iraq represents an ideological blow to al Qaeda

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There are still plenty of places where al Qaeda supporters are active